Penn State may have impressed last night against Michigan, but FPI is still not particularly bullish on the Nittany Lions' chances to win the Big Ten. The model gives them an 18% chance to win the conference, behind Wisconsin (30%) and Ohio State (52%).
FPI is relatively optimistic about the Panthers' chances of bouncing back today after last week's loss to the Eagles.
Notre Dame now has an 18% chance to finish the season with a top-four Strength of Record. Probably not coincidentally, the Fighting Irish have a 19% chance to win out, per FPI.
After routing USC last night, Notre Dame received a 2.7-point upgrade to its FPI rating and moved up three spots in the FPI rankings to No. 5. No new teams entered the top 10, and the order of the top four teams did not change.
Should Oklahoma State beat Texas today, it would have a 26% chance to win the Big 12. And while Texas is a long shot, the Longhorns aren't totally out of it either. With a win, their chances of winning the conference would go up from 4% to 9%.
Oklahoma has an 80% chance to beat Kansas State today, but if the Sooners lose, their chance to win the Big 12 would drop to 21% and their chance to finish the season with a top-four Strength of Record would fall from 34% right now to 12%.
After losing to the Raiders last night, the Chiefs dropped to No. 2 in FPI's rankings. The Patriots took over the top spot. The model also upgraded Oakland's rating by 1.2 points per game after surpassing expectations against Kansas City.
Kevin Love's 23-foot three with 46 seconds remaining increased the Cavs win probability from 65% to 83%, - the highest WPA of the game.
The Rams now have a 27% chance to reach the playoffs, up from 16% this morning, after beating the Jaguars today. That number does not include changes to FPI ratings based on today's performances.
After a few bad games in a row, Jay Cutler rebounded in Miami's win over the Falcons, posting a solid Total QBR of 71.1. That's his highest single-game Total QBR as a member of the Dolphins.
After DeShone Kizer struggled to start the season, Kevin Hogan started for the Browns today but wasn't any better. The former Stanford quarterback posted a Total QBR of 7.3 against the Texans. Entering today, Kizer had the worst Total QBR this season (18.0) among qualifying quarterbacks.
Alex Smith's 57-yard touchdown pass to De'Anthony Thomas (and ensuing PAT) increased the Chiefs' chances of beating the Steelers by 30%.
Don't sleep on Stanford as a potential Pac-12 champion.
As of 5:45 p.m., the Packers' chances to reach the postseason and win the Super Bowl would have been 80% and 10%, respectively, if Aaron Rodgers had started every remaining game. If Rodgers is out for the year, those numbers drop to 50% and 2%, respectively.
The Bears' chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft dropped from 7% to 2% after they beat the Ravens today and the 49ers and Browns both lost.
After Clemson lost and Miami won this weekend, the Hurricanes are the favorites to win the ACC.
The Chiefs, who just recovered the free kick following a safety, had FPI's highest-rated special teams unit in the league entering today.
John Harbaugh's decision to punt on fourth-and-2 from the Ravens' 48-yard line with 5:48 left in overtime cost the Ravens 4.5% in win probability.
Our live playoff probabilities have the Falcons down to a 52% chance to reach the postseason after losing today, down from 66% this morning. These numbers account for all results and current win probabilities, but do not consider FPI rating changes as a result of today's performances.
Though both teams are 3-2, FPI believes the Jaguars are quite a bit better than the Rams.
FPI would have projected the Packers to win 6.6 of the team's final 10 regular season games if it assumed Aaron Rodgers was the starter for the duration. If it assumes Brett Hundley is the starter over the same stretch, it projects 5.2 wins in those 10 games.
The Saints' playoff chances have increased from 37% this morning to 44% at halftime after New Orleans essentially secured a victory over the Lions in the first two quarters of play.
The Jets were narrow favorites to win today's game when they were driving inside the two-minute warning in the first half. But after Josh McCown threw an interception and Tom Brady led a quick touchdown drive, the Patriots now have a 71% chance to win with the game currently tied at halftime.
The Ravens entered today with a 53% chance to reach the playoffs, but that number is already down 37% at halftime. Baltimore trails Chicago at the half and only has a 38% chance to win today after being an 81% favorite before kickoff.
Football Outsiders' QBASE model liked Brett Hundley quite a bit when he was coming out of college. The model gave the former UCLA QB almost a 64% chance of turning into at least an "adequate starter" and a 26% chance to become at least an "upper-tier" quarterback. The creator of the QBASE model now works in the Browns' front office.