TAB Betting Blog: Danawi you would put your money elsewhere

Adam Hyeronimus Mark Evans/Getty Images


Warwick Farm Race 1 No.3 Danawi (Adam Hyeronimus) - $2.30

After making him the best bet last Wednesday, Danawi, unfortunately, dumped Hugh Bowman before the race and got loose, eventually being scratched. I see no reason this beautifully bred son of Exceed And Excel will have taken any harm from that physically or mentally, and this is probably an easier race.

There was very strong mail for him on debut at the Anzac Day Randwick meeting, but he ran into one of the most promising young gallopers in the land in The Autumn Sun, who powered over the top of him late.

Tim Martin spelled him immediately, and we saw him at the trials twice prior to last week's mishap -- both on his home track of Rosehill -- looking in good order on both occasions.

Right now, he's a $26 chance in the Golden Rose, and while it might seem that the road to that race is a long one for a horse that hasn't even won a race yet, I've got little doubt that connections believe he's a very talented colt and want to give him every opportunity to prove that. In order for that to occur and not leave his run too late, he has to win straight away and get his rating up to a level to secure starts in events that can get him to that point.

That journey begins with a win here.


Warwick Race 2 No.9 Wonderbabe (James McDonald) - $10

I love it when you see genuine improvement from an unraced galloper in their trials prior to their first start. It shows they are learning, and thriving, and beginning to comprehend what they need to do once they get to raceday.

I think we've seen that in Snitzel filly Wonderbabe who debuts in this maiden at Warwick Farm. The Brad Widdup-prepared full sister to speedy mare Miss Wonderland only just got a pass mark at her first trial earlier in July. She wasn't all that well away, settled well back, and was ok late under hard riding. A fortnight later, she had clearly learnt some lessons, as she was fast away, sat outside a solid speed travelling kindly, and was able to hold an advantage late, without being asked for too much of an effort.

James McDonald, who rode her in both trials, has stuck with her as she kicks off her career. She draws nicely, and she has struck a field of fillies where none have genuinely caught the eye as of yet. She looks like she's got some level of talent and I'll certainly be taking some of that double figure quote on offer.

Sale Race 8 No.4 Four Sisters (Melissa Julius) (a1.5) - $11

I thought Four Sisters would go well at Sandown at nice odds a fortnight ago, but she was a race morning scratching. Barring any setbacks, she should perform well here given this event is no harder.

She's the type of mare that needs to be ridden cold and come at them late with one run. I thought she was given no hope last start when a massive drifter in betting at Cranbourne, getting way out of her ground and only getting out the last 200 metres or so. I reckon apprentice Melissia Julius would like a mulligan on that ride, and she gets the chance to atone for it right away.

If she's going alright, she just needs a race run to suit, and a little bit of luck when it matters. If she gets that here, she's well and truly capable of winning this.


Warwick Farm Race 7 No.11 Ataraxia (Kerrin McEvoy) - $13

It's fair to say Ataraxia is no star, and that Dulcify Quality win as a three-year-old may well end up being his lone stakes win at the conclusion of his career. I do believe he's certainly up to midweek level and after two runs back from a spell, the son of Teofilo may well be ready to put his best foot forward now in what is an open affair.

The Godolphin gelding didn't do anything first up on a softish track under a big weight. He was then sent back to the midweek meeting here a fortnight ago, over the same distance as this race, where he was wide most of the way. He made a long, early run in an attempt to get into the race, but couldn't sustain that late and just held his position over the last 200 metres. It wasn't a bad effort considering what had occurred in the run.

I reckon that almost gets him to peak fitness now, and although he's potentially going to have to come around them again here considering he's drawn wide, if he can get a slightly softer run in transit, I can see Ataraxia being right in this late at a very attractive price.


Warwick Farm

Leg 1 - 4,6

Leg 2 - 2,3,6,7,9

Leg 3 - 5,8,9,11

Leg 4 - 4,5,10,11

($100 = 62.5%)


Leg 1 - 4,5,6

Leg 2 - 1,3,5,9,10,11

Leg 3 - 1,4,5

Leg 4 - 9,10

($100 = 92.59%)