Rating how close every NFL team is to winning next year's Super Bowl

February, 8, 2018
Feb 8
7:33
AM ET

Tom Brady, Everson Griffen, Le'Veon Bell and Aaron DonaldESPN Illustration

This time last year, the Philadelphia Eagles' opening odds to win Super Bowl LII were 60-1. We all know how that story ended.

How close is your team to winning next year's big game? NFL Nation reporters rated how close all 32 teams are on the following scale:

  1. Realistic Super Bowl expectations
  2. Should contend, but there are question marks
  3. Middle of the pack
  4. Lots of work to do
  5. Nowhere close

Note: Every blurb starts with a team's odds to win Super Bowl LIII according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (as of Feb. 3), but are ordered alphabetically under each category.


Realistic expectations

Green Bay Packers

12-1: The first time Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone (2013), he returned the next season and had one of his best years. His return might be enough to make up for the holes exposed in his absence last season. Read more from Rob Demovsky.

New England Patriots

5-1: No team has better odds than the Patriots, even with Tom Brady set to turn 41. But here is one question to consider: Will all the additional mileage catch up to them? Read more from Mike Reiss.

New Orleans Saints

16-1: These odds seem just about right for the Saints. They were close enough to sniff the Super Bowl this season, despite finishing with 10 projected starters on injured reserve. And they should only get better. Read more from Mike Triplett.

Philadelphia Eagles

6-1: The Eagles arrived ahead of schedule. Few projected that they would seriously contend for a championship in Year 2 of coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Carson Wentz, and even fewer thought they'd get the job done when Wentz went down with an injury and Nick Foles stepped in. And the core of the Super Bowl roster will remain intact. Read more from Tim McManus.

Pittsburgh Steelers

8-1: The divisional playoff loss to Jacksonville showed a few cracks in the teeth of the Steelers' defense, but this is far from a rebuild. They're too close to overhaul anything. Read more from Jeremy Fowler.


Should contend, but there are question marks

Atlanta Falcons

18-1: The Falcons would love nothing more than to become the first team to play a Super Bowl in its own stadium. To make that a reality, they have to rediscover the offensive success they enjoyed during their 2016 Super Bowl run. Read more from Vaughn McClure.

Carolina Panthers

30-1: The Panthers' road to Super Bowl LII was stalled by the Saints. Now the oddsmakers put the Panthers behind Seattle (20-1) and Dallas (20-1), two teams that didn’t even make the NFC playoffs. You can almost hear coach Ron Rivera already using the "no respect" card. Read more from David Newton.

Dallas Cowboys

20-1: Coming off a 13-3 record in 2016 with Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott entering their second seasons, the Cowboys had realistic Super Bowl expectations. At least it seemed. But why don't those expectations remain with Elliott expected for a full season and Prescott entering his third year? Read more from Todd Archer.

Houston Texans

20-1: The Texans will get a huge boost from a healthy Deshaun Watson, but they still have several holes that need to be filled on both sides of the ball. Read more from Sarah Barshop.

Jacksonville Jaguars

20-1: The Jaguars should be one of the best teams in the AFC in 2018. But giving up a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game was a reminder that Jacksonville still has work to do. Read more from Michael DiRocco.

Kansas City Chiefs

25-1: One of those question marks is quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who replaces Alex Smith. The Chiefs have surrounded Mahomes with top skill players, but it's still unknown whether he can consistently deliver as the full-time starter. Read more from Adam Teicher.

Los Angeles Chargers

25-1: Some players and coaches grumbled that the Chargers could have made a deep playoff run had they reached the postseason. But after opening the season 0-4, they have no one to blame but themselves. Read more from Eric Williams.

Los Angeles Rams

25-1: Expectations have risen dramatically for the Rams, enough so that a large segment of the fan base will no doubt be disappointed with the team's latest Super Bowl odds. There's at least a decent chance the entire starting offense will return intact around quarterback Jared Goff. But the same can't be said on defense. Read more from Alden Gonzalez.

Minnesota Vikings

12-1: The Vikings' improbable run ended one game shy of their ultimate goal, but Vegas expects Minnesota to have another great season in 2018 with the fourth-best odds to win Super Bowl LIII. However, with a healthy Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, the Vikings' quest for back-to-back division titles looks like a brutal test. Read more from Courtney Cronin.

Oakland Raiders

20-1: Two days before Jon Gruden was reintroduced as the coach, Oakland's odds to win Super Bowl LIII were 30-1. Look at them now. But last year's regression can't be pinned only to quarterback Derek Carr. Read more from Paul Gutierrez.

Tennessee Titans

40-1: Maybe lower national expectations will pay off better for the Titans after their 2017 hype dissolved quickly. But that all starts with quarterback Marcus Mariota, who is coming off his worst year as a pro. Read more from Cameron Wolfe.


Middle of the pack

Baltimore Ravens

40-1: The Ravens have been the definition of mediocrity over the past five seasons with a 40-40 record. Want some hope? Read more from Jamison Hensley.

Detroit Lions

60-1: The Lions have strong pieces in place to perhaps be a contender in 2018. But there are a few reasons holding them back in the middle of the pack. Read more from Michael Rothstein.

San Francisco 49ers

30-1: It was a tough call between "middle of the pack" and "should contend," but it's hard to declare the Niners full-fledged contenders yet. They closed last season 5-0 with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo taking the league by storm and changing the perception of the franchise. But those wins don't mean much heading into 2018. Read more from Nick Wagoner.

Seattle Seahawks

20-1: "I couldn't feel more optimistic about our chances to be really good again," coach Pete Carroll said after Seattle's disappointing season ended earlier than anyone expected. Carroll's outlook is hard to reconcile with all the challenges the Seahawks face as they try to reverse a downward trend that culminated in their first season without a playoff berth since 2011. Read more from Brady Henderson.

Washington Redskins



80-1: Washington at least settled the quarterback situation. Whether Alex Smith is an upgrade over Kirk Cousins can be debated, but regardless of who is at quarterback, the Redskins need to give them more help. Read more from John Keim.


Lots of work to do

Arizona Cardinals

80-1: The Cardinals' odds of getting to and winning the Super Bowl can vary significantly depending on whom they find to be their starting quarterback. As of now, they don’t have one. Read more from Josh Weinfuss.

Buffalo Bills

80-1: It might be a surprising classification for a team that made the playoffs in 2017 and seemed to be on the upswing, but this has been the theme of general manager Brandon Beane's public comments since the season ended. "We have a long way to go," Beane said in early January. Read more from Mike Rodak.

Chicago Bears

100-1: The Bears never will be viewed as legitimate contenders until they reach the playoffs on a consistent basis. And a lot has to happen for them to make significant strides in Matt Nagy's first year as coach. Read more from Jeff Dickerson.

Cincinnati Bengals

80-1: The Bengals were considered a Super Bowl contender just three seasons ago, but losing key pieces such as Marvin Jones and Andrew Whitworth hurt their offense. Read more from Katherine Terrell.

Denver Broncos

30-1: The Broncos still have a Super Bowl MVP in his prime (Von Miller) and a locker room full of players who were part of that championship run in 2015. But Vance Joseph was also almost fired after his first season as coach and the team has enormous questions at quarterback. Read more from Jeff Legwold.

Indianapolis Colts

40-1: The Colts have a lot of work ahead of them in order to catch the rest of the AFC. They're no longer the best team in their own division. Read more from Mike Wells.

Miami Dolphins

80-1: After reaching the playoff in Adam Gase's first season as coach in 2016, the Dolphins took a step back this season. Their success or failure in 2018 will depend on their ability to shore up the quarterback position. Read more.

New York Giants

80-1: The Giants are coming off a disastrous season. New coach Pat Shurmur and general manager Dave Gettleman have their work cut out for them. Read more from Jordan Raanan.

New York Jets

100-1: According to Vegas, the Jets are "nowhere close" because no team has longer odds than the Jets, but we'll give them a slight bump because they built a partial foundation last season. Read more from Rich Cimini.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers



60-1: If this was 2016 when the Bucs finished 9-7, they'd be "middle of the pack" and in contention for a playoff spot. But the Bucs' nonexistent pass rush, secondary struggles, lack of a ground game and difficulties in the red zone in 2017 suggest that they really have their work cut out for them in 2018. Read more from Jenna Laine.


Nowhere close

Cleveland Browns

100-1: The case can be made that between all their draft capital and an estimated $110 million in salary cap, the Browns should finally wrangle their way out of the bottom tier. Except the judgment is for this season, and no matter how well the Browns draft in April, it won't result in a Super Bowl. Read more from Pat McManamon.videovideovideo

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