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Late-round fantasy QBs with top-10 upside in 2018

Jared Goff broke out in his sophomore season, but is still outside of the top 15 at the position in ADP. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, 12 quarterbacks posted 250 or more fantasy points. That may seem like a large number of high-scoring field generals, yet it was actually the lowest volume of 250-point quarterbacks since 2012 and ended a six-year streak of an increase in 250-point quarterbacks. In 2008, there were just six, with the number growing each season until there were 18 in 2016.

Considering the overpowering upward historical trend, it would seem logical to predict that there will be more than 12 250-point passers in 2018. Given that the average value of the No. 10 scoring quarterback (the entry level to QB1 status in 10-team leagues) over the past five seasons is 269.7 points, landing a quarterback who will score 250 or more points gives a fantasy manager a very good chance having a low-tier starting-caliber fantasy quarterback.

The value proposition to this development is to identify passers who have the combination of 250-point-or-higher potential and a relatively low average draft position. Using that mindset, I've identified four quarterbacks who have that upside to go along with QB2-caliber ADP.


Alex Smith, Washington Redskins