Old logic doesn't apply

Updated: October 29, 2004, 12:04 PM ET
By Hank Goldberg | ESPN Insider
  • In-depth game breakdowns, simulations, fantasy projections

    In this topsy-turvy season, more than one reliable handicapping tenet has been blown up. Home underdogs have always been a major consideration – like the first factor to look for when the line is released.

    Just a year ago, only 39 percent of road favorites won straight up. NFC travelers who have been favored this year are 27-23.

    Laying more than a touchdown home or away has been a ticket to bankruptcy in years past. That's not the case in the eyes of the oddsmakers this year, as last weekend offered 10 such situations.

    Those favorites were 4-5-1 against the spread. In other words, the results are inconclusive. In Week 8, there are five TD or more numbers.

    Hank Goldberg is an NFL reporter on a variety of ESPN programs. He first joined ESPN2 as football analyst on SportsNight when the new network launched Oct. 1, 1993. He has also been a frequent contributor on ESPN Radio since June 1992.